About MarketMoves: methodology and sources

MarketMoves is a daily cross-asset tracker: one grouped table of how stocks, sectors, foreign markets, crypto, commodities, Treasury yields, credit, currencies and stress gauges moved over 1 day to 1 year, plus a written read of the drivers for each horizon. Every day is frozen into a dated archive.

How the changes are computed

• 1D: the latest close against the previous observation.
• 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y: the latest close against the close on the last trading day on or before the same calendar date one week, one, three or six months, or one year earlier. Month ends are clamped (March 31 compares with the last trading day on or before February 28), and weekends and holidays fall back to the prior trading day.
• Prices, index levels, exchange rates and ratios change in percent. Yields and spreads change in basis points (1 bp = 0.01 percentage point), so a move from 0.12% to 0.52% reads as +40 bp, not +333%.
• 5y DD (drawdown) is the latest close divided by the highest close of the last five years, minus 1. 0.0% means a new five-year high. Series with less than five years of history show n/a. Drawdowns are not shown for yields and spreads.
• As of tags: a daily series whose latest print is older than the market close of that page gets an "as of" date (SOFR and the WTI and Brent spot prices publish a day or more later). Weekly and monthly series (mortgage rate, CPI, unemployment) are judged by their own schedule.
• Weekly series show no 1D change.

Day delta

Computed in code with fixed thresholds: 1D moves beyond 3% for prices or 10 bp for yields, new five-year highs, five-year drawdown shifts of more than 3 percentage points from the previous close, and prediction-market moves of 5 percentage points or more.

Signals

Relative-performance spreads in percentage points (the first leg's % change minus the second's) over 1D, 2D, 3D, 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y for pairs such as semis against the S&P 500, tech against defensives, value against growth, emerging markets against the US and high yield against investment grade. The AI leaders basket is an equal-weight, daily-rebalanced index of NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, GOOGL, META and AMZN computed from adjusted closes. Each pair gets a state from fixed thresholds: trend (same sign over 1W, 1M and 3M), reversal (2D or 1W against the 3M/6M trend, with the number of sessions since the turn), emerging (a new 1W/1M move after a flat 3M) or none. Volume figures are ETF dollar volume over the last 5 sessions against the 60 before: volume proxies, not fund-flow data.

Written analysis

Each day's sections (Today (1D), This week (1W), One month (1M), Three months (3M), Six months (6M), One year (1Y), Cross-asset read, Credit and stress watch) are drafted by an automated writer from that day's numbers and a list of collected headlines (title, link, source and date only), plus a few articles it opens itself. It states causes, tests competing explanations against the cross-asset data, and checks the explanations given in news coverage ("What the news says vs what the data shows"). Before publication a validator checks that every number in the text appears in the day's data, that every claim and theme cites a signal, headline or researched article, that quoted excerpts appear verbatim in the cached article, and that the text contains no advice or forecasts. Wording about flows says "consistent with", because volume and relative performance are not measured fund flows. If a check fails, the previous day stays live with a visible delay notice.

Data and proxies

Where an index level is not available to us for free, an exchange-traded fund stands in for it and is labelled, for example "Dow (DIA ETF)". The site owner's own data feed replaces a proxy when it supplies the index itself; overlapping series are cross-checked and disagreements are flagged for review.

Data credits

Market data: Alpha Vantage. Official sources: U.S. Treasury, Cboe, ECB, NY Fed, BLS, Freddie Mac, EIA.

Fallbacks, used automatically when the primary source fails and flagged for review: Nasdaq.com (ETF closes), EIA (WTI and Brent spot), the GLD and SLV funds (spot gold and silver), ECB reference rates (USD/JPY, USD/MXN), CoinGecko with Nasdaq.com crypto history (Bitcoin, Ether), BLS (CPI, unemployment rate, payrolls) and the NY Fed (effective fed funds rate). Treasury yields come from the U.S. Treasury and are cross-checked against Alpha Vantage. ETF changes and drawdowns use dividend- and split-adjusted closes; the Last column shows the unadjusted close. Cross-check tolerances: ETF last close 0.5%, spot against fund daily direction 1 pp, yields 3 bp, FX 0.5%, crypto 2%.

Macro drivers: the fed funds rate, CPI inflation, unemployment rate, payrolls, retail sales and real GDP come from Alpha Vantage, with every derived figure (year-over-year rates, monthly changes, annualized growth) computed by MarketMoves; CPI is cross-checked against BLS.

Sources

• Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, spot metals and oil, FX, crypto, macro)
• Nasdaq.com historical quotes (ETF closes; fallback and cross-check)
• US Treasury daily par yield curve
• US Treasury daily real yield curve
• Cboe VIX daily history
• ECB euro reference rates (USD crosses)
• New York Fed SOFR
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
• EIA WTI and Brent spot prices (fallback and cross-check)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls)
• New York Fed effective federal funds rate (fallback and cross-check)
• CoinGecko daily prices (fallback and cross-check; older closes from Nasdaq.com crypto history)
• Polymarket public market data

Prediction-market odds are shown as plain data from the venue. Crypto prices are shown as plain data.

Underlying forces: how we judge causes

We treat causes as a small set of shared forces that act on every asset at once; several can be active together and some offset each other. Each force has a fingerprint: how strongly it should push each signal (relative performance pairs, yields and the curve, the dollar, EM currencies, commodities, the VIX, credit, breakevens and real yields). Every observed move is scaled by its own typical size over the past 3 years, and only moves of at least 1 typical sizes enter a fit. Our code then finds the fewest forces that best explain the whole pattern (non-negative least squares with a sparsity penalty).

We fit the long horizons first: the 1-year, 6-month and 3-month fits form the regime. The 1-month, 1-week and 2-day fits start from the regime and need strong evidence to add a new force, so each short-term force is labelled a continuing regime force, a regime force strengthening or fading, or a new short-term force. Moves the forces do not explain are asset-specific; we attribute them only with news or research. What commentators said was driving markets is used to suggest forces; the fit decides which are real. The model is checked against past episodes (the 2020 COVID crash, 2022 inflation and Fed hikes, the 2023 SVB failure, the 2023 AI rally, the 2016 election and the 2024 rate-cut repricing).

• Recession / growth fear: Investors price weaker growth: cyclicals, small caps, copper and oil fall behind, credit weakens and long yields fall. Pushes up: the VIX, long-duration Treasuries, the 2s10s curve. Pushes down: Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP), Copper (CPER) vs gold (spot), High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), the 10Y yield, crude oil, Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY), the 2Y yield, 10Y breakevens, the S&P 500, Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), bitcoin.
• Growth optimism / reflation: Investors price stronger growth: cyclicals, small caps, copper and oil lead, credit firms and long yields rise. Pushes up: Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP), Copper (CPER) vs gold (spot), High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), the 10Y yield, crude oil, Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY), the 2Y yield, 10Y breakevens, the S&P 500, Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), bitcoin. Pushes down: the VIX, long-duration Treasuries, the 2s10s curve.
• Hawkish Fed repricing: Markets price more Fed rate increases: the 2Y leads yields higher, the curve flattens, the dollar firms and long-duration assets lag. Pushes up: the 2Y yield, Polymarket odds of a Fed rate increase, the dollar, the 10Y yield, the 10Y real yield, Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF), EM currency weakness. Pushes down: the 2s10s curve, long-duration Treasuries, gold, Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), bitcoin, the S&P 500, Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY).
• Dovish Fed repricing: Markets price fewer Fed rate increases: the 2Y leads yields lower, the curve steepens, the dollar softens and long-duration assets gain. Pushes up: the 2s10s curve, long-duration Treasuries, gold, Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), bitcoin, the S&P 500, Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY). Pushes down: the 2Y yield, Polymarket odds of a Fed rate increase, the dollar, the 10Y yield, the 10Y real yield, Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF), EM currency weakness.
• Inflation scare: Inflation compensation rises: breakevens and nominal yields climb, commodities and gold gain, long duration falls. Pushes up: 10Y breakevens, the 10Y yield, commodities, crude oil, gold, Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF), the 2s10s curve. Pushes down: long-duration Treasuries, the S&P 500.
• Inflation pressure easing: Inflation compensation falls: breakevens and nominal yields ease, commodities soften, long duration gains. Pushes up: long-duration Treasuries, the S&P 500. Pushes down: 10Y breakevens, the 10Y yield, commodities, crude oil, gold, Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF), the 2s10s curve.
• Real-yield shock: Real yields jump: long-duration assets, gold and growth stocks fall behind, the dollar firms. Pushes up: the 10Y real yield, the 10Y yield, Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF), the dollar. Pushes down: long-duration Treasuries, AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY), Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500.
• Flight to safety / risk-off: Investors cut risk: volatility jumps, stocks and credit fall, Treasuries and gold gain, emerging markets lag. Pushes up: the VIX, gold, EM currency weakness, the dollar. Pushes down: the S&P 500, High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), bitcoin, the 10Y yield, Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY).
• Relief / risk-on: Investors add risk: volatility falls, stocks and credit gain, safe havens give back ground. Pushes up: the S&P 500, High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), bitcoin, the 10Y yield, Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY). Pushes down: the VIX, gold, EM currency weakness, the dollar.
• Dollar squeeze / EM stress: A stronger dollar tightens conditions abroad: EM currencies, EM debt and EM stocks fall behind. Pushes up: the dollar, EM currency weakness. Pushes down: Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), EM dollar bonds, Copper (CPER) vs gold (spot).
• AI optimism: Investors favour AI winners: the AI leaders and semis lead, tech beats defensives and mega-caps carry the index. Pushes up: AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY), Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA), the S&P 500. Pushes down: Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY), Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF).
• AI capex / profitability doubts: Investors doubt the payoff of AI spending: AI leaders and semis lag, defensives and the average stock gain relative ground. Pushes up: Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY), Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF). Pushes down: AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY), Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY), Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU), S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA), the S&P 500.
• Oil supply shock: A supply disruption lifts crude: oil and commodities rise, breakevens climb, consumers lag. Pushes up: crude oil, commodities, 10Y breakevens, the 10Y yield. Pushes down: Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP), Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude, the S&P 500.
• Oil supply relief: Supply fears ease: crude and commodities fall, breakevens ease, consumers gain. Pushes up: Discretionary (XLY) vs staples (XLP), Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude, the S&P 500. Pushes down: crude oil, commodities, 10Y breakevens, the 10Y yield.
• Credit stress: Lenders and bond buyers pull back: high yield trails investment grade, regional banks and EM debt fall behind. Pushes up: the VIX. Pushes down: High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY), EM dollar bonds, the S&P 500, Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY).
• Funding / liquidity stress: Short-term funding dries up: banks (regional banks first) fall behind, volatility jumps, investors rush into cash, bills and the dollar. Pushes up: the VIX, the dollar, the 2s10s curve. Pushes down: Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY), High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD), the 2Y yield, Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY), bitcoin, the S&P 500.

Forward calls (AI-generated)

Each asset group's card ends its "Direction of travel" with a forward call: a view on direction or relative performance over 1 week, 1 month or 3 months, with a confidence level, the reasoning behind it and the conditions that would prove it wrong. The calls are written by an AI model from public data and the evidence on the page, checked by our validator, and are the site's opinion, not investment advice. They never contain price levels or trade instructions. Every call is stored unchanged; when its horizon ends it is scored in code against the realised move, and the results and hit rates are on the calls page.

Privacy

Anonymous page statistics only: no cookies, no identifiers. See the privacy policy.

Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.