Market data and signals: Monday, November 2, 2026
Supporting data for the 2026-11-02 market moves page.
Macro drivers
Fed funds rate (effective)3.88%0.00 pp over 1 month2026-11-02 · Alpha Vantage
CPI inflation (year over year)3.7%+0.3 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Unemployment rate4.2%+0.1 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Nonfarm payrolls159,238k+333k over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Retail sales (year over year)6.7%+1.6 pp over 1 monthSep 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Real GDP growth (annualized, quarter over quarter)4.9%−7.8 pp over 1 quarterQ3 2026 · Alpha Vantage
Unemployed (level)7,109k+78k over 1 monthSep 2026 · BLS
10Y real yield (TIPS)2.62%−0.30 pp over 1 month2026-11-02 · US Treasury
10Y breakeven (nominal minus real)2.29%−0.07 pp over 1 month2026-11-02 · US Treasury
WTI crude spot$100.06+2.2% over 1 month2026-11-02 · Alpha Vantage
30Y mortgage rate7.24%+0.21 pp over 1 month2026-10-29 · Freddie Mac
Prediction-market odds
Day delta
- New 5-year highs Dividend (SCHD) at 35.90; Staples (XLP) at 90.83; Materials (XLB) at 53.67; T-bill ETF (SGOV) at 100.43
- Big moves on the day Energy (XLE): −3.96%; WTI crude (spot): −6.97%; Brent crude (spot): −10.62%; Managed futures (CTA): −6.41%; VIX (Cboe): +8.91%; Commodities (DBC): −3.42%
- Drawdown shifts Energy (XLE): 5y drawdown moved from 0.0% to −4.0% (−4.0 pp); WTI crude (spot): 5y drawdown moved from −13.0% to −19.1% (−6.1 pp); Brent crude (spot): 5y drawdown moved from −13.1% to −22.3% (−9.2 pp); VIX (Cboe): 5y drawdown moved from −62.9% to −59.6% (+3.3 pp); Commodities (DBC): 5y drawdown moved from −1.4% to −4.8% (−3.4 pp)
Signals
| Pair | State | 2D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI leaders basket vs S&P 500 (SPY) | trend | −1.1 pp | −3.2 pp | −8.1 pp | −5.6 pp | −9.8 pp |
| Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | trend | −7.3 pp | −4.4 pp | −17.1 pp | −6.9 pp | −5.2 pp |
| Tech (XLK) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) | trend | −9.2 pp | −9.4 pp | −24.0 pp | −7.4 pp | −3.0 pp |
| Cyclicals (XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB) vs defensives (XLP, XLV, XLU) | none | −0.3 pp | +0.1 pp | −5.0 pp | −5.7 pp | −7.0 pp |
| Equal-weight (RSP) vs cap-weight S&P 500 (SPY) | emerging | +2.2 pp | +3.0 pp | +7.2 pp | +1.8 pp | +4.4 pp |
| Small caps (IWM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | reversal, turned 13 sessions ago | +0.5 pp | +2.5 pp | +1.4 pp | −4.8 pp | −4.4 pp |
| Value (IWD) vs growth (IWF) | trend | +3.5 pp | +4.3 pp | +12.5 pp | +5.1 pp | +16.1 pp |
| S&P 500 (SPY) vs developed ex-US (EFA) | emerging | −1.6 pp | −2.5 pp | −2.0 pp | +2.7 pp | +1.7 pp |
| Emerging (EEM) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | none | −0.3 pp | +0.6 pp | −7.4 pp | −5.6 pp | −9.1 pp |
| High yield (HYG) vs IG corporate (LQD) | none | −0.3 pp | 0.0 pp | −1.7 pp | −0.6 pp | +1.1 pp |
| Regional banks (KRE) vs S&P 500 (SPY) | none | +3.4 pp | +3.1 pp | +6.4 pp | −3.4 pp | +1.9 pp |
| Copper (CPER) vs gold (spot) | emerging | +0.6 pp | +1.4 pp | +4.3 pp | +2.6 pp | +23.1 pp |
| Energy stocks (XLE) vs WTI crude | emerging | +3.0 pp | +1.5 pp | +4.8 pp | −2.5 pp | +20.8 pp |
- Dollar (UUP ETF), % change: 1D −0.1%; 1W −0.2%; 1M +0.2%; 3M +2.8%
- EM FX stress: average % change of USD against BRL, INR, KRW, MXN, ZAR (up = EM currencies weaker): 1D −0.2%; 1W +0.3%; 1M +1.0%; 3M +1.5%
- 10Y real yield (Treasury), change in bp: 1D +2 bp; 1W −4 bp; 1M −30 bp; 3M +15 bp
- Sector breadth: 1D 8 of 11 sector ETFs up (73%); 1W 8 of 11 sector ETFs up (73%); 1M 8 of 11 sector ETFs up (73%)
- Unusual volume: Staples (XLP) 1.77 times its 60-day average, Health care (XLV) 1.67 times its 60-day average. Volume proxies, not fund-flow data: ETF dollar volume (close x shares traded) over the last 5 sessions against the 60 sessions before.
Sources and data dates
- Alpha Vantage (adjusted daily closes, spot metals and oil, FX, crypto, macro): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF) and 47 more. Latest data 2026-11-02
- US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-11-02
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-10-29
- Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-11-02
- New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed). Latest data 2026-11-02
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment, payrolls): Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-09-01
- US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-11-02
Proxies
- Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
- Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
- Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
- Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)
Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.