Market moves: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Close of Wednesday, November 4, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) +1.65%; US 10Y 4.90% (−5 bp on the day); VIX (Cboe) 16.61 (−20.26% on the day); Dollar (UUP ETF) −0.38%; Gold (GLD ETF) +3.68%; Bitcoin (USD) +3.95%. Largest 1D move in the table: VIX (Cboe) −20.26%.
The written analysis on this day is a setup sample, grounded in this page's data and headlines.
Asset table
| Asset | Last | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Us Equity | ||||||||
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 766.81 | +1.65% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.6% | +6.8% | +13.6% | −1.6% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 691.95 | +0.97% | −4.6% | −7.7% | −4.4% | +2.8% | +11.7% | −8.9% |
| Dividend (SCHD)new 5y high | 36.21 | +1.86% | +3.2% | +10.7% | +7.0% | +14.9% | +37.0% | 0.0% |
| Dow (DIA ETF) | 533.11 | +3.10% | +1.6% | +4.3% | −1.4% | +8.9% | +13.2% | −1.8% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) | 284.02 | +1.51% | +1.0% | +0.9% | −5.9% | +2.2% | +17.8% | −6.9% |
| Sectors | ||||||||
| Tech (XLK) | 176.50 | −0.01% | −7.6% | −11.7% | −5.6% | +8.9% | +20.1% | −12.6% |
| Health care (XLV)new 5y high | 189.66 | +3.06% | +5.5% | +14.1% | +17.0% | +31.0% | +30.7% | 0.0% |
| Financials (XLF)new 5y high | 59.20 | +3.51% | +5.5% | +10.7% | +2.3% | +14.8% | +12.9% | 0.0% |
| Energy (XLE) | 63.52 | −4.74% | −7.2% | +1.1% | +8.5% | +7.0% | +45.7% | −9.3% |
| Staples (XLP)new 5y high | 91.94 | +3.36% | +5.9% | +14.2% | +7.7% | +10.1% | +21.0% | 0.0% |
| Discretionary (XLY) | 122.33 | +4.26% | +6.1% | +11.2% | +3.4% | +3.9% | +2.7% | −1.8% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 43.61 | +0.44% | +2.6% | +9.5% | −1.1% | −6.0% | −1.8% | −8.6% |
| Materials (XLB)new 5y high | 53.90 | +2.49% | +3.9% | +10.3% | +3.7% | +6.4% | +27.2% | 0.0% |
| Real estate (XLRE) | 45.12 | +3.32% | +7.1% | +10.6% | −0.1% | +2.4% | +10.2% | −12.9% |
| Communication (XLC) | 104.96 | +3.47% | +1.8% | −4.9% | −6.3% | −9.6% | −7.0% | −12.6% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 169.46 | −1.09% | +0.6% | −0.3% | −9.1% | −0.9% | +11.0% | −9.1% |
| Foreign | ||||||||
| Developed ex-US (EFA) | 105.72 | +2.56% | +2.0% | +1.7% | −1.5% | +5.0% | +13.0% | −2.8% |
| Developed (VEA) | 70.82 | +2.09% | +0.7% | −0.4% | −1.9% | +4.3% | +17.4% | −4.0% |
| Emerging (EEM) | 61.62 | +0.85% | −3.0% | −8.9% | −6.6% | −3.9% | +12.8% | −13.5% |
| Emerging (VWO) | 56.28 | +1.70% | −1.3% | −5.5% | −6.3% | −4.2% | +3.6% | −8.4% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 93.86 | +1.37% | −1.2% | −5.1% | −0.8% | +6.5% | +13.3% | −5.5% |
| China large-cap (FXI) | 34.59 | +4.22% | +6.6% | +4.2% | −4.7% | −5.4% | −12.1% | −17.1% |
| Germany (EWG) | 43.50 | +3.42% | +4.1% | +5.3% | −0.8% | +4.9% | +7.8% | −2.4% |
| Crypto | ||||||||
| Bitcoin (USD) | 80,443 | +3.95% | −1.0% | −7.0% | +25.6% | +0.8% | −21.1% | −35.3% |
| Ethereum (USD) | 2,423.08 | +6.57% | +2.8% | −11.1% | +29.7% | +3.3% | −27.2% | −49.5% |
| Commodity | ||||||||
| Gold (GLD ETF) | 372.49 | +3.68% | −0.3% | −2.0% | −0.4% | −10.2% | +2.8% | −24.9% |
| Crude (USO ETF) | 145.41 | −8.07% | −12.7% | −1.3% | +25.6% | −1.5% | +102.2% | −14.2% |
| WTI spot (EIA)as of 2026-11-03 | 99.64 | −0.42% | −3.6% | +1.8% | +21.6% | −5.4% | +61.3% | −19.4% |
| Copper (CPER ETF) | 38.59 | +0.21% | −4.3% | −2.4% | −3.9% | +8.5% | +26.4% | −6.9% |
| Rates | ||||||||
| US 3M bill | 4.21% | 0 bp | +3 bp | +2 bp | +32 bp | +51 bp | +25 bp | – |
| US 2Y | 4.58% | −3 bp | −9 bp | −25 bp | +38 bp | +63 bp | +100 bp | – |
| US 10Y | 4.90% | −5 bp | −15 bp | −38 bp | +27 bp | +45 bp | +80 bp | – |
| US 20Y | 5.30% | −5 bp | −11 bp | −37 bp | +12 bp | +29 bp | +65 bp | – |
| US 30Y | 5.28% | −4 bp | −9 bp | −35 bp | +10 bp | +26 bp | +61 bp | – |
| 2s10s spread | +32 bp | −2 bp | −6 bp | −13 bp | −11 bp | −18 bp | −20 bp | – |
| 30Y mortgage (weekly) | 7.24% | n/a | −8 bp | +21 bp | +66 bp | +101 bp | +105 bp | – |
| Credit | ||||||||
| IG corporate (LQD) | 104.50 | +0.75% | +0.4% | +2.6% | −2.1% | −3.5% | −5.6% | −22.5% |
| High yield (HYG) | 77.52 | +0.70% | −0.1% | +0.8% | −2.6% | −2.9% | −3.3% | −11.4% |
| Alts | ||||||||
| Managed futures (CTA) | 26.73 | −5.71% | −11.4% | −8.3% | +5.0% | −18.0% | −0.9% | n/a |
| FX / Vol | ||||||||
| Dollar (UUP ETF) | 28.90 | −0.38% | −0.6% | 0.0% | +2.6% | +5.2% | +2.0% | −5.8% |
| USD/JPY (ECB) | 158.25 | −0.02% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +3.1% | −3.5% |
| USD/MXN (ECB) | 18.6461 | +0.26% | +0.1% | +1.7% | +7.9% | +6.6% | +0.1% | −14.8% |
| VIX (Cboe) | 16.61 | −20.26% | −1.8% | +8.5% | +0.7% | −9.2% | −12.6% | −68.3% |
| Stress | ||||||||
| TIPS (TIP) | 106.10 | 0.00% | −0.2% | +1.9% | −0.9% | −4.5% | −4.4% | −18.9% |
| Long zero-coupon (ZROZ) | 58.85 | +1.24% | +1.8% | +10.2% | −0.3% | −4.8% | −14.3% | −63.9% |
| T-bill ETF (SGOV) | 100.45 | +0.01% | −0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 31.29 | −3.55% | −7.4% | −3.8% | +10.5% | −0.1% | +36.7% | −8.2% |
| KRE/SPY ratio | 0.0967 | +0.06% | +3.5% | +5.1% | −4.2% | +0.6% | +9.1% | −43.8% |
| SOFR (NY Fed)as of 2026-11-03 | 3.97% | +2 bp | +2 bp | +9 bp | +32 bp | +33 bp | −16 bp | – |
Macro drivers
Prediction-market odds
- Fed Decision in December? 25 bps increase 77.5% 1D change n/a Polymarket
- Fed Decision in December? No change 21.5% 1D change n/a Polymarket
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? 0 (0 bps) 97.8% 1D change +1.0 pp Polymarket
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 77.5% 1D change +2.0 pp Polymarket
- Fed Decision in January? No change 77.5% 1D change +5.0 pp Polymarket
- Fed Decision in January? 25 bps increase 18.5% 1D change −6.0 pp Polymarket
- Fed Decision in March? No change 47.5% 1D change n/a Polymarket
- Fed Decision in March? 25 bps increase 47.5% 1D change −1.0 pp Polymarket
Day delta
- New high Dividend (SCHD): new 5-year high at 36.21
- Big move Dow (DIA ETF): +3.10% on the day
- Big move Health care (XLV): +3.06% on the day
- New high Health care (XLV): new 5-year high at 189.66
- Big move Financials (XLF): +3.51% on the day
- New high Financials (XLF): new 5-year high at 59.20
- Big move Energy (XLE): −4.74% on the day
- Drawdown shift Energy (XLE): 5y drawdown moved from −4.8% to −9.3% (−4.5 pp)
- Big move Staples (XLP): +3.36% on the day
- New high Staples (XLP): new 5-year high at 91.94
- Big move Discretionary (XLY): +4.26% on the day
- Drawdown shift Discretionary (XLY): 5y drawdown moved from −5.8% to −1.8% (+4.0 pp)
- New high Materials (XLB): new 5-year high at 53.90
- Big move Real estate (XLRE): +3.32% on the day
- Big move Communication (XLC): +3.47% on the day
- Big move China large-cap (FXI): +4.22% on the day
- Drawdown shift China large-cap (FXI): 5y drawdown moved from −20.5% to −17.1% (+3.4 pp)
- Big move Germany (EWG): +3.42% on the day
- Drawdown shift Germany (EWG): 5y drawdown moved from −5.7% to −2.4% (+3.3 pp)
- Big move Bitcoin (USD): +3.95% on the day
- Big move Ethereum (USD): +6.57% on the day
- Drawdown shift Ethereum (USD): 5y drawdown moved from −52.6% to −49.5% (+3.1 pp)
- Big move Gold (GLD ETF): +3.68% on the day
- Big move Crude (USO ETF): −8.07% on the day
- Drawdown shift Crude (USO ETF): 5y drawdown moved from −6.7% to −14.2% (−7.5 pp)
- Big move Managed futures (CTA): −5.71% on the day
- Big move VIX (Cboe): −20.26% on the day
- Drawdown shift VIX (Cboe): 5y drawdown moved from −60.2% to −68.3% (−8.1 pp)
- Big move Commodities (DBC): −3.55% on the day
- Drawdown shift Commodities (DBC): 5y drawdown moved from −4.9% to −8.2% (−3.3 pp)
- Odds move Fed Decision in January? (No change): 72.5% to 77.5% (+5.0 pp)
- Odds move Fed Decision in January? (25 bps increase): 24.5% to 18.5% (−6.0 pp)
Today (1D): Relief rally after the midterms, led by the Dow, with oil and volatility sharply lower
US stocks rose broadly on November 4, 2026, the first session after the midterm results. The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 1.65% and the Dow proxy (DIA) rose 3.10%, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lagged at +0.97% and technology (XLK) was flat at -0.01%. MarketWatch described it as the Dow's best day in 18 months.
Breadth sat in defensive and cyclical sectors rather than tech: financials (XLF) +3.51%, staples (XLP) +3.36%, health care (XLV) +3.06% and discretionary (XLY) +4.26%. Financials, staples, health care, materials and the dividend fund SCHD all closed at new 5-year highs. Energy was the exception, with XLE down 4.74% as crude fell: the USO fund lost 8.07%.
Treasury yields fell across the curve: the 10Y ended at 4.90%, down 5 bp, and the 2Y at 4.58%, down 3 bp. The VIX dropped 20.26% to 16.61. Gold (GLD) rose 3.68% and Bitcoin 3.95%, while the dollar fund UUP slipped 0.38%.
Drivers
- Markets reacted to the Democratic sweep of Congress; MarketWatch reported the Dow's best day in 18 months in a broad relief rally. Source: MarketWatch, 2026-11-05, Anadolu Ajansı, 2026-11-05
- Oil prices and Treasury yields both fell after the election result, matching the 8.07% drop in USO and the 5 bp fall in the 10Y. Source: Seoul Economic Daily, 2026-11-05, CNBC, 2026-11-05, MarketMoves data
- Gold had its strongest session in weeks as the dollar and yields softened. Source: صحيفة مال, 2026-11-05, FXEmpire, 2026-11-05
- AI-related shares lagged even as global stocks mostly gained, consistent with flat XLK and QQQ trailing the Dow. Source: LancasterOnline, 2026-11-05, MarketMoves data
This week (1W): A flat week for the S&P 500 under the surface of a sector rotation
Over the week SPY was down 0.7% even after the rally, because tech carried the losses: XLK fell 7.6% and QQQ 4.6%. Real estate (XLRE) gained 7.1%, discretionary 6.1% and staples 5.9%.
The 10Y yield fell 15 bp on the week and the 2Y 9 bp. Crude was the weakest asset: USO lost 12.7% and the managed-futures fund CTA 11.4%. The week's data included a strong September job-openings report, and rate increases abroad from Australia and a jump in euro-area inflation.
Drivers
- Job openings rose strongly in September ahead of the payrolls report. Source: CNBC, 2026-11-03
- Australia raised rates to an 18-year high and euro-area inflation rose, keeping global rate-increase pressure in the headlines. Source: CNBC, 2026-11-03, CNBC, 2026-11-04
- The post-election move pushed yields to eight-week lows by the WSJ's account. Source: WSJ, 2026-11-05
One month (1M): Tech down, defensives up, yields lower over the month
Across one month the leadership flipped away from technology. XLK fell 11.7% and QQQ 7.7%, while health care rose 14.1%, staples 14.2% and SCHD 10.7%. SPY was nearly unchanged at -0.4%.
Yields fell in the month: the 10Y by 38 bp and the 2Y by 25 bp, and the long zero-coupon fund ZROZ gained 10.2%. The 10Y real yield fell 0.28 pp to 2.64%. Emerging markets (EEM) lost 8.9%. Bitcoin fell 7.0% and Ethereum 11.1%.
Drivers
- Hot wholesale inflation in September (PPI) kept the Fed's tightening in focus in mid-October. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-15
- The Fed held rates at its October meeting; coverage centered on Chair Warsh's guidance and the path for further increases. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-28, Federal Reserve, 2026-10-28, CNBC, 2026-10-27
- Concern about the AI trade weighed on technology shares during the month. Source: WSJ, 2026-10-19, CNBC, 2026-10-19
Three months (3M): Higher front-end yields and an oil surge over the quarter
Over three months the front end of the curve repriced higher: the 2Y rose 38 bp, the 3M bill 32 bp and the 10Y 27 bp, so the 2s10s spread narrowed by 11 bp to +32 bp. SOFR rose 32 bp.
Crude dominated commodities, with USO up 25.6% and the WTI spot price up 21.6% (EIA data as of 2026-11-03). Crypto rebounded, with Bitcoin up 25.6% and Ethereum 29.7%. SPY was little changed at -0.6%, while health care gained 17.0% and industrials (XLI) fell 9.1%.
Drivers
- Fed communication under Chair Warsh and rising rate-increase expectations shaped the quarter, as reported around the September and October meetings. Source: NPR, 2026-09-12, CNBC, 2026-10-28
- Coverage of the bond market focused on the size of the federal deficit and the level of long-term Treasury yields. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-26
- Rate changes and yield levels in this section are computed from US Treasury and NY Fed data. Source: MarketMoves data
Six months (6M): Six months of rising yields, a firmer dollar and weaker gold
Across six months SPY gained 6.8% and health care 31.0%, while communication services (XLC) fell 9.6% and utilities (XLU) 6.0%. The 2Y yield rose 63 bp and the 10Y 45 bp. The 30Y mortgage rate rose 101 bp over the same window.
The dollar fund UUP gained 5.2% and gold (GLD) fell 10.2%, leaving it 24.9% below its 5-year high. Investment-grade credit (LQD) fell 3.5%.
Drivers
- The Fed held rates with three dissents in July, a sign of a divided committee as inflation stayed high. Source: AP News, 2026-07-29
- Housing showed strain as mortgage rates climbed and the Fed weighed more increases. Source: CNBC, 2026-10-21
One year (1Y): A year of higher rates: stocks up, long bonds and crypto down
Over one year SPY rose 13.6% and SCHD 37.0%, while energy (XLE) gained 45.7% and USO 102.2%. Bonds went the other way: the 2Y yield rose 100 bp and the 10Y 80 bp, ZROZ fell 14.3% and LQD 5.6%.
Bitcoin was down 21.1% and Ethereum 27.2% over the year. CPI inflation was 3.7% year over year in the September 2026 print, up 0.3 pp from the prior month.
Drivers
- The Fed's December 2025 rate cut gave way to a tightening debate in 2026, visible in Fed statements through October. Source: Federal Reserve, 2026-10-28, Reuters, 2025-11-17
- Changes over the year are computed from Nasdaq, Treasury and BLS data shown in the table and macro block. Source: MarketMoves data
Cross-asset read: Lower yields, lower oil and a weaker dollar on the same day
The session combined falling yields, falling crude and a softer dollar with rising stocks and gold: a pattern consistent with a relief move rather than a growth scare, since the VIX fell 20.26% and high yield (HYG) gained 0.70%.
The 10Y breakeven stood at 2.26%, down 0.10 pp over a month, and the real yield at 2.64%. Polymarket odds still priced a 77.5% chance of another Fed rate increase in 2026, up 2.0 pp on the day; the odds of no change in January rose 5.0 pp to 77.5%. Data caveats: SOFR and the EIA WTI spot price are as of 2026-11-03.
Drivers
- Oil and Treasury yields fell together after the election outcome. Source: Seoul Economic Daily, 2026-11-05
- Gold rallied as the dollar and Treasury yields softened. Source: صحيفة مال, 2026-11-05
- Odds, breakeven and real-yield figures come from Polymarket and US Treasury data on this page. Source: MarketMoves data
Credit and stress watch: Credit steady; regional banks firmer; stress gauges calm
Credit funds rose with stocks: LQD gained 0.75% and HYG 0.70% on the day. HYG sits 11.4% below its 5-year high and LQD 22.5% below, a reflection of higher yields more than of spread stress.
Regional banks gained ground on the broad market over the month, with the KRE/SPY ratio up 5.1%, though the ratio remains 43.8% below its 5-year high. SOFR was 3.97% (as of 2026-11-03) and the T-bill fund SGOV was flat. The VIX at 16.61 compares with a 5-year drawdown of 68.3% from its peak level.
Drivers
- Credit and funding figures are computed from Nasdaq ETF closes and the NY Fed SOFR series. Source: MarketMoves data
- Bank-sector headlines around the session focused on the policy outlook after the midterms rather than credit losses. Source: CNBC, 2026-11-04
Sources and data dates
- Nasdaq.com historical quotes (ETF closes): S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dividend (SCHD), Dow (DIA ETF), Russell 2000 (IWM ETF), Tech (XLK), Health care (XLV), Financials (XLF), Energy (XLE), Staples (XLP), Discretionary (XLY), Utilities (XLU), Materials (XLB), Real estate (XLRE) and 21 more. Latest data 2026-11-04
- CoinGecko daily prices (last 365 days; older closes from Nasdaq.com crypto history): Bitcoin (USD), Ethereum (USD). Latest data 2026-11-04
- EIA WTI Cushing spot price: WTI spot (EIA), WTI crude spot. Latest data 2026-11-03
- US Treasury daily par yield curve: US 3M bill, US 2Y, US 10Y, US 20Y, US 30Y, 2s10s spread. Latest data 2026-11-04
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: 30Y mortgage (weekly), 30Y mortgage rate. Latest data 2026-10-29
- ECB euro reference rates (USD crosses): USD/JPY (ECB), USD/MXN (ECB). Latest data 2026-11-04
- Cboe VIX daily history: VIX (Cboe). Latest data 2026-11-04
- New York Fed SOFR: SOFR (NY Fed). Latest data 2026-11-03
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, unemployment): CPI inflation (year over year), Unemployed (level). Latest data 2026-09-01
- US Treasury daily real yield curve: 10Y real yield (TIPS), 10Y breakeven (nominal minus real). Latest data 2026-11-04
- Polymarket public market data: Odds
Proxies
- Dow (DIA ETF): DIA ETF stands in for the Dow index
- Russell 2000 (IWM ETF): IWM ETF stands in for the Russell 2000 index
- Gold (GLD ETF): GLD ETF stands in for gold futures
- Crude (USO ETF): USO ETF stands in for crude futures
- Copper (CPER ETF): CPER ETF stands in for copper futures
- Dollar (UUP ETF): UUP ETF stands in for the dollar index (DXY)
Not investment advice. MarketMoves describes past market data and reported news for general information. Figures can be delayed or wrong; check the original source before relying on them.